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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Mystiqueloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
CatYou · 2 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Tz. · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Tz. · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 1 game
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Tz. · 1 game
0%

Team Mystique

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Victoria · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
GodKing · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
XCJ · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
XCJ · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nj · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
GodKing · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Lin · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
499 picks · 337 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 470 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 415 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
344 picks · 338 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
344 picks · 396 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 157 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 676 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 627 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Team Mystique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:49
LBZS 58%Team Mystique 42%
The model gave 58% on LBZS — the game was taken by Team Mystique in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaFonte
44% · 221 game54% · 102 games
SlarkLin
Slark
Leshrac
LeshracShanks
54% · 225 games54% · 221 game
Dragon Knightzone-
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsTzy
45% · 382 games52% · 154 games
Primal BeastNj
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickHelios
45% · 397 games49% · 629 games
Tinyrayy
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorguoguo
55% · 211 games49% · 330 games
MiranaDrink
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct47:33
LBZS 57%Team Mystique 43%
The model gave 57% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidFonte
50% · 200 games55% · 176 games
MorphlingLin
Morphling
Puck
PuckShanks
49% · 389 games41% · 190 games
Void Spiritzone-
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierTzy
53% · 455 games49% · 316 games
MarciNj
Marci
Rubick
RubickHelios
53% · 413 games50% · 597 games
Tinyrayy
Tiny
Lich
Lichguoguo
40% · 113 games57% · 291 game
MiranaDrink
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct44:29
LBZS 57%Team Mystique 43%
The model gave 57% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 1:01:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFonte
48% · 237 games62% · 9 games
Arc WardenLin
Arc Warden
Puck
PuckShanks
57% · 269 games49% · 353 games
Death ProphetNj
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTzy
61% · 258 games47% · 228 games
Dragon Knightzone-
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickHelios
46% · 326 games41% · 337 games
SnapfireDrink
Snapfire
Disruptor
Disruptorguoguo
58% · 113 games46% · 276 games
Clockwerkrayy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 64%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3