Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionLPLegalize Potmwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TGTarzan Gangloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legalize Potm
No games played over 6 months.
Tarzan Gang
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 328 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 379 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 573 bans
Lion
227 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
226 picks · 247 bans
Lina
221 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
215 picks · 269 bans
Bane
212 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Legalize Potm
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Tarzan Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
Legalize Potm 48%Tarzan Gang 52%
The model gave 52% on Tarzan Gang — the game was taken by Tarzan Gang in 33:07.
Game 2prediction missed25:26
Legalize Potm 48%Tarzan Gang 52%
The model gave 52% on Tarzan Gang — the game was taken by Legalize Potm in 38:38.
Game 3prediction missed15:36
Legalize Potm 48%Tarzan Gang 52%
The model gave 52% on Tarzan Gang — the game was taken by Legalize Potm in 34:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTarzan Gang · 52%
Series resultLegalize Potm 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3