UNIVERSE by FISSURE. Закрытая квалификация · BO5
result vs prediction
LEGIONwin 3:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 3:1
BlasterbIloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LEGION
Nyx Assassin
xsvampire · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 2 games
Dazzle
Kidaro · 2 games
Dragon Knight
SabeRLight- · 2 games
Largooften banned
SabeRLight- · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
Mirana
Kidaro · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
BlasterbI
Dark Willow
Panto · 5 games
Witch Doctor
Panto · 5 games
Earthshaker
Hellscream · 4 games
Clockwerk
Hellscream · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Corrupted · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 3 games
Necrophosoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
527 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 208 bans
Mirana
390 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
336 picks · 309 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 506 bans
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 509 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% LEGION
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% BlasterbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
LEGION 40%BlasterbI 60%
The model gave 60% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by LEGION in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerDarkLord^
SvenMunkushi~
SlarkStojkov
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
MiranaPanto
Witch DoctorKidaro
RubickHellscream
Game 2prediction correct18:47
LEGION 40%BlasterbI 60%
The model gave 60% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by BlasterbI in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
DawnbreakerCorrupted
InvokerStojkov
PuckSquad1x
ClinkzDarkLord^
WindrangerMunkushi~
Spirit Breakerxsvampire
EarthshakerHellscream
HoodwinkKidaro
Winter WyvernPanto
Game 3prediction missed37:23
LEGION 43%BlasterbI 57%
The model gave 57% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by LEGION in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidDarkLord^
Nature's ProphetSquad1x
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
WindrangerMunkushi~
Outworld DestroyerStojkov
EarthshakerHellscream
MiranaKidaro
SlardarCorrupted
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
BanePanto
Game 4prediction missed1:0
LEGION 38%BlasterbI 62%
The model gave 62% on BlasterbI — the game was taken by LEGION in 14:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerStojkov
Storm SpiritSquad1x
UnderlordSabeRLight-
NecrophosCorrupted
LifestealerDarkLord^
Lone DruidMunkushi~
Miranaxsvampire
LargoHellscream
Witch DoctorKidaro
Winter WyvernPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteBlasterbI · 70%
Series resultLEGION 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4