?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lesnaya Bratvaloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ASAKURAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lesnaya Bratva

No games played over 6 months.

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 5 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
slimeyao · 4 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
333 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 414 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
442 picks · 574 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
427 picks · 228 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 541 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 729 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
413 picks · 489 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 592 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
357 picks · 939 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:39
Lesnaya Bratva 30%ASAKURA 70%
The model gave 70% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 1:04:48.
Game 2prediction correct39:45
Lesnaya Bratva 30%ASAKURA 70%
The model gave 70% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 50:08.
Game 3prediction correct35:43
Lesnaya Bratva 30%ASAKURA 70%
The model gave 70% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 1:03:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 70%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3