PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLULevel UP MarsBahisloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP MarsBahis
No games played over 6 months.
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 704 bans
Mars
412 picks · 664 bans
Techies
408 picks · 325 bans
Lion
399 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
393 picks · 497 bans
Batrider
389 picks · 864 bans
Crystal Maiden
365 picks · 160 bans
Vengeful Spirit
364 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP MarsBahis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
Level UP MarsBahis 23%Rest Farmers 77%
The model gave 77% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 41:12.
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Level UP MarsBahis 23%Rest Farmers 77%
The model gave 77% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 38:44.
Game 3prediction correct36:14
Level UP MarsBahis 23%Rest Farmers 77%
The model gave 77% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 26:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 77%
Series resultRest Farmers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3