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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aim Possibleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
xsvampire · 4 games
50%

Aim Possible

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
25%
Warlock
Warlock
Aidar · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Rain · 2 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
543 picks · 605 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
486 picks · 245 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
432 picks · 378 bans
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
431 picks · 473 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
404 picks · 849 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 360 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 554 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 532 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Level UP 57%Aim Possible 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrubikon155
55% · 169 games44% · 261 game
Terrorbladechempik
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
49% · 64 games55% · 186 games
PuckRain
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMaTson
43% · 59 games52% · 35 games
DazzleAidar
Dazzle
Lion
LionAtoufix
50% · 95 games
Warlock
WarlockPonlo
51% · 95 games
Game 2prediction correct31:10
Level UP 56%Aim Possible 44%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrubikon155
54% · 91 game54% · 112 games
Ursachempik
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMaTson
50% · 50 games47% · 80 games
Void SpiritRain
Void Spirit
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
35% · 36 games49% · 129 games
WarlockAidar
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAtoufix
51% · 89 games
Enchantress
EnchantressPonlo
56% · 55 games
Game 3prediction correct32:18
Level UP 55%Aim Possible 45%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMaTson
31% · 27 games55% · 98 games
Lifestealerchempik
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightrubikon155
44% · 68 games58% · 81 game
Keeper of the LightRain
Keeper of the Light
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
43% · 44 games47% · 27 games
DazzleAidar
Dazzle
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
57% · 18 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterAtoufix
54% · 49 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3