Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Daxak · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 4 games
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
OwnedMe · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Doomoften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
Ancient Tribe
Tinyoften banned
Alexxo · 16 games
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 630 bans
Disruptor
603 picks · 533 bans
Doom
527 picks · 1021 bans
Beastmaster
525 picks · 1293 bans
Ember Spirit
454 picks · 1157 bans
Pangolier
449 picks · 932 bans
Mirana
431 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
427 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:41
Level UP 61%Ancient Tribe 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:05:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainLorenof
Monkey Kinglil pleb
BloodseekerDaxak
Ember SpiritMo13ei
EnigmaOwnedMe
BatriderLeBronDota
Doomswedenstrong
BeastmasterWuiter
MiranaMiLAN
Skywrath MageAlexxo
Game 2prediction missed4:24
Level UP 58%Ancient Tribe 42%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperLorenof
ViperMo13ei
SvenDaxak
Void Spiritlil pleb
BatriderOwnedMe
BeastmasterWuiter
EnchantressMiLAN
PugnaAlexxo
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Game 3prediction correct32:6
Level UP 61%Ancient Tribe 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenDaxak
MagnusMo13ei
Storm SpiritLorenof
Dark SeerWuiter
TidehunterOwnedMe
Morphlinglil pleb
VenomancerMiLAN
Spirit BreakerAlexxo
Pugnaswedenstrong
SilencerLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 66%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3