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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ASAKURAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
38%
Luna
Lunasignature
Focus · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
0%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 658 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 619 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 312 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 800 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 422 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
Level UP 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 49:55.
Game 2prediction correct18:28
Level UP 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 45:17.
Game 3prediction missed
Level UP 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 57%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3