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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
86%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
44%

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
283 picks · 408 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 586 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
208 picks · 184 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
207 picks · 298 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
206 picks · 305 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:49
Level UP 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 57:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaPanda
56% · 111 games52% · 15 games
Phantom LancerFocus
Phantom Lancer
Viper
ViperTaiga
47% · 21 game45% · 89 games
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyDelight
47% · 177 games51% · 60 games
InvokerDendi
Invoker
48% · 88 games
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
Batrider
50% · 57 games
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct29:31
Level UP 49%B8 Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTaiga
53% · 61 game51% · 77 games
Faceless VoidFocus
Faceless Void
Monkey King
Monkey KingPanda
56% · 154 games48% · 192 games
PangolierDendi
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyDelight
46% · 272 games42% · 80 games
WindrangerStoneBank
Windranger
39% · 90 games
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
Hoodwink
58% · 48 games
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 55%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2