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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
38%
Luna
Lunasignature
Focus · 8 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
dEsire · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
0%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
58%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 610 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 568 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
367 picks · 291 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 724 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 349 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:7
Level UP 62%B8 Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1