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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 9 games
22%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
14%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
0%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 9 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
29%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 7 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Sven
Sven
paw · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 717 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 278 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
331 picks · 641 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
324 picks · 219 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 372 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 472 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
297 picks · 349 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 539 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:15
Level UP 49%Dragon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Level UP in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinFocus
40% · 36 games57% · 108 games
Ursapaw
Ursa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMaTson
49% · 25 games50% · 135 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark Seerififall
58% · 80 games43% · 30 games
Sand Kingdualrazee
Sand King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinJeezy
49% · 21 game
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
46% · 111 games
Game 2prediction correct11:53
Level UP 47%Dragon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenFocus
59% · 84 games51% · 87 games
Ursapaw
Ursa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMaTson
58% · 60 games40% · 271 game
Rubickdualrazee
Rubick
Dark Seer
Dark Seerififall
53% · 149 games51% · 195 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Batrider
BatriderJeezy
51% · 215 games
Jakiro
JakiroSsaSpartan
43% · 45 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2