BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 7 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ififall · 4 games
Doomoften banned
ififall · 4 games
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
358 picks · 349 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
345 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 507 bans
Sven
295 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
285 picks · 256 bans
Windranger
275 picks · 371 bans
Dragon Knight
269 picks · 459 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 28%
Hero pool strength55% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:20
Level UP 57%Dragon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLowskill
Medusalil pleb
InvokerMaTson
Puckdualrazee
MarciSsaSpartan
TimbersawInfernal
Dark Willowxsvampire
Sniperarmageddon
49% · 62 games
DisruptorMary_y
Game 2prediction correct31:9
Level UP 56%Dragon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLowskill
Storm Spiritdualrazee
TinyMaTson
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
PhoenixSsaSpartan
KunkkaInfernal
Miranaxsvampire
ClockwerkMary_y
53% · 160 games
Dark Willowarmageddon
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 61%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2