Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HAVU Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
No games played over 6 months.
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
744 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 477 bans
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1021 bans
Tiny
400 picks · 374 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 972 bans
Doom
396 picks · 651 bans
Undying
390 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:26
Level UP 85%HAVU Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Level UP — the game was taken by HAVU Gaming in 36:48.
Game 2prediction correct20:12
Level UP 85%HAVU Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:28.
Game 3prediction correct32:3
Level UP 85%HAVU Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 85%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3