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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Inner Circlewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
19%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 11 games
82%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Tusk
Tusk
Atoufix · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
20%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Atoufix · 10 games
20%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
538 picks · 855 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 371 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 642 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 590 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 783 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 580 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 554 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 488 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Level UP 26%Inner Circle 74%
The model gave 74% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 74%
Series resultInner Circle 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1