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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
meLes · 7 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
not me · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
29%
Axe
Axesignature
meLes · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 395 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 403 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
346 picks · 207 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 703 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
318 picks · 611 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 799 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:22
Level UP 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Level UP in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMaTson
39% · 151 game48% · 332 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPalantimos
51% · 217 games51% · 135 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Lifestealer
Lifestealerrubikon155
45% · 89 games58% · 91 game
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Silencer
SilencerPonlo
55% · 92 games58% · 283 games
Shadow ShamanGilgir
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskAtoufix
44% · 292 games
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Level UP 37%Kalmychata 63%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursarubikon155
53% · 78 games49% · 148 games
AbaddonLowskill
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMaTson
52% · 125 games47% · 108 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPalantimos
49% · 172 games44% · 87 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
55% · 74 games56% · 257 games
Nature's ProphetGilgir
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAtoufix
47% · 151 game
Game 3prediction correct24:35
Level UP 36%Kalmychata 64%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMaTson
44% · 210 games53% · 236 games
DoomLowskill
Doom
Juggernaut
Juggernautrubikon155
71% · 3 games52% · 118 games
EarthshakerCorrupted
Earthshaker
Undying
UndyingPalantimos
40% · 79 games42% · 87 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
56% · 104 games57% · 225 games
Nature's ProphetGilgir
Nature's Prophet
Tusk
TuskAtoufix
53% · 270 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 71%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3