The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 7 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bor@nija · 5 games
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 641 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 408 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
385 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 1046 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 745 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:48
Level UP 38%Matreshka Team 62%
The model gave 62% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 36:49.
Game 2prediction missed26:37
Level UP 38%Matreshka Team 62%
The model gave 62% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:10.
Game 3prediction correct
Level UP 38%Matreshka Team 62%
The model gave 62% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 62%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3