Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MoneyMakersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 13 games
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
Sven
Daxak · 11 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
Techies
MiLAN · 9 games
MoneyMakers
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
Techies
Bignum · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
Doomsignature
Bb3px · 8 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
CeMaTheSlayeR · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
419 picks · 200 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 482 bans
Techies
298 picks · 293 bans
Undying
286 picks · 467 bans
Morphling
282 picks · 528 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 474 bans
Timbersaw
253 picks · 611 bans
Storm Spirit
249 picks · 461 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
Level UP 63%MoneyMakers 37%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinLorenof
MuertaLukas
Razor7jesu
Queen of PainEgor
EarthshakerOwnedMe
BeastmasterBb3px
Pugnaswedenstrong
DoomCeMaTheSlayeR
Clockwerkso bad
Skywrath MageBignum
Game 2prediction missed29:49
Level UP 59%MoneyMakers 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 52:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade7jesu
SvenLukas
PangolierLorenof
Night StalkerBb3px
BrewmasterOwnedMe
Storm SpiritEgor
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
Nature's ProphetBignum
Warlockso bad
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 3prediction correct35:28
Level UP 59%MoneyMakers 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta7jesu
GyrocopterLukas
Storm SpiritLorenof
NecrophosEgor
BrewmasterOwnedMe
PhoenixBignum
Warlockso bad
Night StalkerBb3px
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 72%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3