CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 14 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
Tiny
Atoufix · 11 games
Most Wanted
Batrideroften banned
423 · 2 games
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Iooften banned
Rein · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
niche · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
niche · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 591 bans
Hoodwink
454 picks · 235 bans
Mars
382 picks · 655 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1110 bans
Tusk
373 picks · 250 bans
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 348 bans
Warlock
334 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:29
Level UP 43%Most Wanted 57%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerNikobaby
Dragon Knight423
Queen of PainMaTson
Ember Spiritniche
MarspJonn
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Dark WillowGilgir
TuskPonlo
Enchantresskur0patbI4
PugnaRein
Game 2prediction correct8:29
Level UP 43%Most Wanted 57%
The model gave 57% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 25:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaNikobaby
Timbersawniche
AxepJonn
Terrorblade423
PangolierMaTson
MarsfortniteMan
RingmasterGilgir
LionPonlo
Crystal Maidenkur0patbI4
EnchantressRein
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 61%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2