European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 6 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
Earthshaker
MaTson · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ififall · 4 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lion
Riddys · 36 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
338 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 264 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 547 bans
Clockwerk
299 picks · 254 bans
Jakiro
293 picks · 236 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 394 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 464 bans
Sand King
278 picks · 779 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength63% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total73% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
Level UP 36%Natus Vincere Junior 64%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Level UP in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaFocus
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
PuckMaTson
Beastmasterpma
DawnbreakerWuiter
Earth SpiritNiku
RubickJeezy
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Keeper of the LightDaze
Game 2prediction correct27:42
Level UP 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterFocus
HuskarNiku
Sand KingWuiter
Razorpma
InvokerMaTson
Dazzlegotthejuice
RubickJeezy
ClockwerkRiddys
AbaddonSsaSpartan
TuskDaze
Game 3prediction correct26:29
Level UP 35%Natus Vincere Junior 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaFocus
Lunagotthejuice
PuckMaTson
TimbersawNiku
RubickJeezy
Dark Seerpma
Primal BeastWuiter
Shadow DemonRiddys
MarciSsaSpartan
TuskDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3