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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 16 games
31%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
krol9ash · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 10 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 9 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
bashka · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 591 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 383 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 416 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
360 picks · 212 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
335 picks · 712 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 829 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 636 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:36
Level UP 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerrubikon155
70% · 8 games40% · 210 games
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMaTson
49% · 129 games56% · 68 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Axe
AxePalantimos
46% · 73 games48% · 153 games
Monkey Kingyoung G
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyAtoufix
52% · 330 games44% · 64 games
Snapfirexsvampire
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorPonlo
56% · 65 games56% · 110 games
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed36:24
Level UP 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrubikon155
54% · 166 games44% · 291 game
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMaTson
47% · 313 games54% · 210 games
Monkey Kingyoung G
Monkey King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterPalantimos
46% · 116 games50% · 236 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPonlo
60% · 205 games44% · 141 game
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterAtoufix
44% · 307 games56% · 229 games
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct13:35
Level UP 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrubikon155
50% · 178 games47% · 169 games
Shadow Fiendbashka
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerPalantimos
45% · 193 games54% · 156 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckAtoufix
49% · 302 games55% · 169 games
MarsCovisnine
Mars
Zeus
Zeusjesv
39% · 16 games63% · 146 games
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Naga Siren
Batrider
BatriderPonlo
47% · 302 games45% · 351 game
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3