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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gilgir · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Gilgir · 5 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nikobaby · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 4 games
25%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
22%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 8 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Covisnine · 8 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 811 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
540 picks · 555 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
433 picks · 395 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
427 picks · 295 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
381 picks · 669 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 592 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
348 picks · 518 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total58% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:12
Level UP 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerchempik
54% · 293 games41% · 59 games
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Marci
MarciNorma
49% · 191 game46% · 426 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tusklupsione
47% · 529 games47% · 204 games
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonmonodrama
56% · 367 games50% · 482 games
Tinyariel
Tiny
55% · 209 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct19:43
Level UP 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorchempik
48% · 133 games43% · 331 game
Windrangerselfhate
Windranger
Dazzle
DazzleNorma
51% · 180 games58% · 439 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinylupsione
47% · 625 games49% · 216 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Jakiro
Jakiromonodrama
50% · 698 games58% · 361 game
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
47% · 289 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct16:33
Level UP 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunachempik
53% · 98 games49% · 151 game
Beastmasterselfhate
Beastmaster
Razor
RazorNorma
47% · 197 games49% · 131 game
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark Willowlupsione
43% · 237 games57% · 228 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Disruptor
Disruptormonodrama
49% · 468 games49% · 286 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
56% · 204 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 58%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3