European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 418 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
258 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 596 bans
Lion
217 picks · 186 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 297 bans
Vengeful Spirit
211 picks · 92 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:39
Level UP 44%Ninja Penguins 56%
The model gave 56% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPanda
AlchemistLowskill
PhoenixDelight
Death ProphetCopy
45% · 78 games
MarsCorrupted
57% · 171 game
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
60% · 122 games
MiranadEsire
Game 2prediction correct13:28
Level UP 45%Ninja Penguins 55%
The model gave 55% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerPanda
Wraith KingLowskill
HoodwinkDelight
Templar AssassinCopy
62% · 48 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
50% · 54 games
Primal BeastdEsire
53% · 15 games
WarlockMiLAN
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 59%
Series resultNinja Penguins 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2