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European Pro League Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 7 games
14%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 6 games
17%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
MaTson · 5 games
60%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ififall · 5 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
20%

Passion UA

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 18 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 16 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 13 games
23%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 13 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
flacko · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 445 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 254 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
304 picks · 259 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 546 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 404 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 462 bans
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
276 picks · 232 bans
43%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 398 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:17
Level UP 41%Passion UA 59%
The model gave 59% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFocus
47% · 127 games54% · 86 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWuiter
47% · 24 games49% · 140 games
RazorBatyuk
Razor
Tiny
TinyMaTson
48% · 209 games55% · 207 games
Puckniche
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
49% · 181 game53% · 74 games
Marciflacko
Marci
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
43% · 18 games51% · 52 games
Nyx AssassinFernans
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct17:25
Level UP 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
54% · 281 game46% · 228 games
Morphlingyowaai
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMaTson
63% · 41 game47% · 177 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomWuiter
46% · 190 games45% · 95 games
Earth Spiritniche
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireJeezy
50% · 282 games44% · 297 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
55% · 254 games55% · 251 game
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed52:19
Level UP 43%Passion UA 57%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaFocus
53% · 128 games46% · 128 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMaTson
50% · 305 games52% · 144 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWuiter
56% · 30 games53% · 164 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
47% · 247 games50% · 91 game
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Lich
LichSsaSpartan
45% · 17 games48% · 200 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 63%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3