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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
StoRmloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
63%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 12 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 7 games
14%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
14%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
29%
Chen
Chensignature
SoNNeikO · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 211 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 520 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
334 picks · 354 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
309 picks · 529 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
298 picks · 583 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 483 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
279 picks · 660 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
257 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:38
Level UP 54%StoRm 46%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by StoRm in 52:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
57% · 31 game47% · 120 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Underlord
UnderlordOwnedMe
49% · 49 games44% · 163 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
55% · 197 games53% · 364 games
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
Nature's Prophet
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
45% · 355 games40% · 107 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorso bad
62% · 122 games
Game 2prediction correct43:21
Level UP 52%StoRm 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
53% · 103 games53% · 159 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOwnedMe
44% · 46 games55% · 119 games
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey King7jesu
54% · 157 games49% · 51 game
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
34% · 40 games51% · 68 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritso bad
46% · 51 game
Game 3prediction correct43:15
Level UP 55%StoRm 45%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
51% · 57 games50% · 128 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Sven
Sven7jesu
49% · 41 game40% · 41 game
Legion CommanderDominic
Legion Commander
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOwnedMe
56% · 131 game45% · 70 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritswedenstrong
53% · 42 games52% · 51 game
Vengeful SpiritSoNNeikO
Vengeful Spirit
Warlock
Warlockso bad
55% · 19 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 56%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3