Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Team Bald Reborn
Earth Spiritoften banned
5up · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Pablo · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 4 games
Hoodwink
Rajjix · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Chaos Knight
Gorgc · 2 games
Dark Willow
Pablo · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
5up · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 1010 bans
Mars
375 picks · 598 bans
Grimstroke
358 picks · 365 bans
Lion
358 picks · 187 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 508 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 684 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
254 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:37
Level UP 47%Team Bald Reborn 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 57:26.
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Level UP 47%Team Bald Reborn 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 34:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 53%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2