EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TPTeam Publicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
Tusk
Atoufix · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Team Public
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
Hoodwink
mrls · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 765 bans
Tusk
494 picks · 343 bans
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 659 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 562 bans
Mars
341 picks · 466 bans
Hoodwink
328 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Public
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:38
Level UP 36%Team Public 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Public in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzLowskill
MorphlingYuragi
Centaur WarrunnerBliNcc
Viperxn丶e
TinyAtoufix
SlardarAntares
Phoenixbengan
Hoodwinksayuw
54% · 205 games
Shadow Demonmrls
Game 2prediction correct22:33
Level UP 38%Team Public 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Public — the game was taken by Team Public in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLowskill
GyrocopterYuragi
Night StalkerBliNcc
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Skywrath MageAtoufix
BatriderAntares
Treant Protectorbengan
Hoodwinkmrls
46% · 138 games
Tusksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Public · 75%
Series resultTeam Public 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2