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BLAST Slam VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 23 games
61%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 22 games
77%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 19 games
84%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 18 games
72%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
queezy · 18 games
61%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 17 games
65%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 30 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomsignature
zeal · 14 games
71%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 14 games
29%
Mirana
Miranasignature
xNova · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
513 picks · 305 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
414 picks · 177 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 174 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 502 bans
58%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
322 picks · 290 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 309 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 497 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
276 picks · 354 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:29
Level UP 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBb3px
54% · 46 games50% · 37 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWoE
63% · 8 games43% · 113 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
53% · 217 games53% · 107 games
SlarkMoon
Slark
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
53% · 361 game47% · 412 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Techies
TechiesHtrd
55% · 125 games40% · 88 games
Witch DoctorBoBoKa
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct41:43
Level UP 39%Xtreme Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:06:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
48% · 287 games54% · 147 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Clinkz
ClinkzWoE
50% · 81 game53% · 228 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
51% · 60 games46% · 148 games
Dragon KnightMoon
Dragon Knight
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
50% · 252 games50% · 130 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Techies
TechiesHtrd
49% · 140 games49% · 167 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed45:34
Level UP 31%Xtreme Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 69%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3