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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Tusk
Tusk
lupsione · 6 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
chempik · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 4 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Atoufix · 4 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphling
chempik · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 3 games
0%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 40 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 18 games
61%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 15 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Rain · 12 games
58%
Largo
Largooften banned
prblms · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
616 picks · 400 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 289 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 581 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 388 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
425 picks · 596 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 969 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
339 picks · 284 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 502 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 66%
Hero pool strength59% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:42
Level UP 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:12:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWoE
51% · 45 games56% · 48 games
Lone DruidShigetsu
Lone Druid
Largo
LargoBb3px
55% · 75 games44% · 163 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
51% · 110 games49% · 25 games
Earth SpiritRain
Earth Spirit
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
40% · 139 games50% · 119 games
LionWein
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHtrd
61% · 83 games48% · 97 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Game 2prediction missed29:32
Level UP 45%Yellow Submarine 55%
The model gave 55% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Level UP in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
48% · 414 games45% · 341 game
Storm SpiritRain
Storm Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
48% · 81 game51% · 69 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Largo
LargoBb3px
55% · 94 games54% · 158 games
AxeBatyuk
Axe
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
47% · 181 game51% · 168 games
SnapfireWein
Snapfire
Lich
LichHtrd
45% · 77 games57% · 111 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 3prediction correct21:40
Level UP 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
51% · 329 games42% · 90 games
LycanBatyuk
Lycan
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
46% · 70 games49% · 173 games
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomBb3px
55% · 183 games48% · 365 games
PuckRain
Puck
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
51% · 202 games48% · 233 games
SnapfireWein
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHtrd
53% · 189 games54% · 112 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3