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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Wisper · 11 games
64%
Largo
Largooften banned
Wisper · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 10 games
60%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 30 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
58%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
520 picks · 371 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 218 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
371 picks · 656 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 360 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 348 bans
60%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 233 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 444 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 336 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:33
LGD Gaming 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 23:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
56% · 55 games53% · 203 games
KezPure~
Kez
Luna
LunaYuma
43% · 59 games56% · 99 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiLung
55% · 232 games45% · 98 games
Earth Spirit33
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeThiolicor
47% · 46 games41% · 202 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKJ
56% · 292 games47% · 82 games
Winter WyvernWhitemon
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed14:47
LGD Gaming 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYuma
55% · 55 games49% · 181 game
KezPure~
Kez
Phoenix
PhoenixWisper
46% · 287 games50% · 345 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Puck
PuckTaiLung
51% · 415 games47% · 87 games
Night Stalker33
Night Stalker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
49% · 60 games54% · 127 games
Keeper of the LightAri
Keeper of the Light
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKJ
52% · 81 game49% · 158 games
LionWhitemon
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2