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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
XinQ · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 682 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 395 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 469 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
249 picks · 210 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
222 picks · 328 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
222 picks · 122 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
213 picks · 636 bans
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
212 picks · 434 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:14
LGD Gaming 48%Aster.Aries 52%
The model gave 52% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
47% · 11 games38% · 12 games
Weaver生死
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
54% · 26 games43% · 30 games
Morphlingphoenix
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
58% · 19 games48% · 39 games
Monkey KingUlu
Monkey King
Lion
LionXinQ
70% · 6 games57% · 3 games
Spirit BreakerFantasy
Spirit Breaker
Abaddon
Abaddony`
52% · 22 games
Game 2prediction missed33:21
LGD Gaming 48%Aster.Aries 52%
The model gave 52% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
50% · 34 games50% · 39 games
Monkey KingUlu
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 44 games44% · 84 games
Puckphoenix
Puck
Undying
Undyingy`
61% · 43 games46% · 66 games
Mars生死
Mars
Alchemist
AlchemistFaith_bian
58% · 32 gameslittle data
Ancient ApparitionFantasy
Ancient Apparition
Lion
LionXinQ
52% · 36 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 57%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2