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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Bane
y` · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
63%

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 10 games
80%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
590 picks · 449 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
408 picks · 627 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 860 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
387 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
361 picks · 238 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 601 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 524 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:5
LGD Gaming 54%Aster.Aries 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
51% · 226 games48% · 89 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
52% · 82 games61% · 22 games
Bristleback生死
Bristleback
Razor
RazorNothingToSay
41% · 192 games61% · 177 games
Death ProphetXwy
Death Prophet
Warlock
Warlocky`
49% · 42 games47% · 244 games
TinyTK
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritXinQ
44% · 68 games52% · 78 games
Shadow ShamanRedPanda
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1