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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
81%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
93%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 13 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 11 games
55%

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
TK · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
777 picks · 599 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 381 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
416 picks · 976 bans
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
405 picks · 685 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
399 picks · 595 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 915 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total88% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:23
LGD Gaming 73%Aster.Aries 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 54:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
53% · 139 games59% · 88 games
TerrorbladeUlu
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
54% · 147 games53% · 140 games
Doom生死
Doom
Magnus
Magnusniu
48% · 72 games49% · 180 games
BatriderXwy
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
47% · 61 game39% · 23 games
AbaddonRedPanda
Abaddon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
46% · 259 games46% · 247 games
RubickTK
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct23:12
LGD Gaming 75%Aster.Aries 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusashiro
57% · 57 games43% · 298 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
60% · 265 games51% · 65 games
Magnus生死
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
49% · 152 games55% · 121 game
Faceless VoidUlu
Faceless Void
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
54% · 96 games45% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightTK
Keeper of the Light
Bane
Baney`
53% · 65 games30% · 41 game
AbaddonRedPanda
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 88%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2