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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Setsu · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 12 games
58%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 12 games
83%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 33 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 28 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 229 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 752 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 417 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 635 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 740 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 168 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1023 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 724 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Azure Ray
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total59% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:23
LGD Gaming 44%Azure Ray 56%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangershiro
55% · 143 games48% · 140 games
Lifestealerlou
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEcho
47% · 187 games54% · 212 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
53% · 241 game49% · 233 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
49% · 53 games55% · 182 games
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
45% · 202 games44% · 59 games
Winter Wyvern天命
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed22:8
LGD Gaming 44%Azure Ray 56%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackshiro
42% · 30 games52% · 95 games
Lifestealerlou
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
48% · 55 games49% · 124 games
PuckOri
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEcho
53% · 73 games48% · 90 games
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
50% · 123 games44% · 5 games
Nyx Assassinfy
Nyx Assassin
Bane
Baney`
61% · 48 games36% · 15 games
Witch Doctor天命
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct9:30
LGD Gaming 46%Azure Ray 54%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 43:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightshiro
51% · 33 games42% · 87 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Dark Seer
Dark Seerniu
52% · 43 games46% · 18 games
Outworld DestroyerOri
Outworld Destroyer
Leshrac
LeshracEcho
53% · 75 games48% · 141 game
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
57% · 110 games44% · 14 games
Witch Doctor天命
Witch Doctor
Bane
Baney`
61% · 28 games46% · 29 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 59%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3