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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EHOMEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 25 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Frisk · 11 games
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 10 games
70%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 7 games
86%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
414 picks · 940 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
377 picks · 539 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
350 picks · 701 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 550 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 220 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
283 picks · 155 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 281 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
LGD Gaming 51%EHOME 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
67% · 10 games60% · 7 games
BroodmotherChalice
Broodmother
Riki
RikiAme
44% · 27 games48% · 61 game
UrsaSylar
Ursa
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
51% · 107 games47% · 73 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
51% · 53 games55% · 55 games
Elder TitanFrisk
Elder Titan
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
54% · 100 games43% · 101 game
OraclexNova
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed11:26
LGD Gaming 54%EHOME 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
57% · 16 games54% · 22 games
RazorXm
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerNothingToSay
37% · 25 games49% · 57 games
JuggernautSylar
Juggernaut
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
51% · 31 game50% · 50 games
TidehunterChalice
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
50% · 56 games58% · 49 games
Elder TitanxNova
Elder Titan
Death Prophet
Death Prophety`
44% · 120 games53% · 70 games
Shadow ShamanFrisk
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct27:21
LGD Gaming 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
48% · 64 games53% · 16 games
LunaSylar
Luna
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
57% · 48 games50% · 115 games
PuckXm
Puck
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
51% · 33 games45% · 25 games
DoomChalice
Doom
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
55% · 58 games48% · 41 game
ClockwerkFrisk
Clockwerk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXinQ
42% · 8 games38% · 14 games
Witch DoctorxNova
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 56%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3