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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
85%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 10 games
90%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 10 games
80%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 9 games
67%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 25 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 20 games
75%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 703 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
636 picks · 462 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
574 picks · 925 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 415 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 407 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1215 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
LGD Gaming 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
44% · 132 games52% · 53 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
54% · 328 games46% · 261 game
Death ProphetWisper
Death Prophet
Riki
RikiNothingToSay
55% · 110 games48% · 192 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
58% · 351 game52% · 264 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
49% · 43 games41% · 194 games
MarciMatthew
Marci
Game 2prediction missed30:16
LGD Gaming 47%Evil Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
54% · 123 games42% · 60 games
LunaPakazs
Luna
Alchemist
AlchemistNothingToSay
47% · 63 games44% · 178 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Brewmaster
Brewmasterzeal
56% · 49 games39% · 55 games
Legion CommanderChris Luck
Legion Commander
Undying
Undyingy`
55% · 192 games55% · 131 game
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
51% · 376 games52% · 379 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 58%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2