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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 24 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 22 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 33 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 32 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 27 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Chris Luck · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Panda · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
642 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
516 picks · 340 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 966 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 858 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 348 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
385 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 447 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
LGD Gaming 59%Evil Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
53% · 114 games50% · 121 game
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Snapfire
SnapfireNothingToSay
47% · 608 games50% · 384 games
PangolierChris Luck
Pangolier
Enigma
Enigmaniu
53% · 362 games50% · 148 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinypLAnet
52% · 635 games43% · 717 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
48% · 93 games54% · 442 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Game 2prediction correct27:18
LGD Gaming 58%Evil Geniuses 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
46% · 162 games47% · 168 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
44% · 186 games46% · 14 games
MeepoChris Luck
Meepo
Mars
Marsniu
52% · 136 games50% · 342 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Undying
Undyingy`
55% · 353 games49% · 380 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
56% · 128 games52% · 61 game
Elder TitanPanda
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 63%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2