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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
NothingToSay · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 23 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 13 games
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 12 games
25%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 460 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
604 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 455 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
514 picks · 568 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
395 picks · 230 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
372 picks · 545 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
369 picks · 572 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
LGD Gaming 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linashiro
46% · 176 games48% · 200 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterELeVeN
55% · 215 games53% · 223 games
Dragon KnightBob
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
39% · 261 game56% · 262 games
EnigmaTino-
Enigma
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakery`
42% · 217 games50% · 366 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
59% · 182 games
Game 2prediction missed16:38
LGD Gaming 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectreshiro
57% · 69 games49% · 158 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Tusk
TuskNothingToSay
50% · 325 games46% · 238 games
Nature's ProphetTino-
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaELeVeN
54% · 165 games47% · 330 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Undying
Undyingy`
54% · 214 games48% · 343 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Snapfire
SnapfirepLAnet
48% · 296 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2