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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
NothingToSay · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
y` · 7 games
29%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 16 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 14 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 465 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
613 picks · 555 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 462 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 578 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 237 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 385 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
382 picks · 563 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
378 picks · 585 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:23
LGD Gaming 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
53% · 311 games43% · 101 game
Sniperdyrachyo
Sniper
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinshiro
37% · 84 games55% · 280 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterELeVeN
54% · 329 games51% · 325 games
Death ProphetAce
Death Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
52% · 144 games44% · 298 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Undying
Undyingy`
57% · 342 games49% · 206 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct9:23
LGD Gaming 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
44% · 29 games60% · 153 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
41% · 375 games54% · 140 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Mars
MarsELeVeN
45% · 260 games50% · 175 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
46% · 179 games53% · 278 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Io
Ioy`
51% · 88 games57% · 185 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2