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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Go alongloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
shiro · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
shiro · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 6 games
17%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
niu · 5 games
80%

Go along

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 376 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 331 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
213 picks · 203 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 491 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
180 picks · 325 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:16
LGD Gaming 91%Go along 9%
The model gave 91% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:06.
Game 2prediction correct32:11
LGD Gaming 91%Go along 9%
The model gave 91% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 91%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2