Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ame · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
Earthshaker
XinQ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 3 games
Puckoften banned
XinQ · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
316 picks · 644 bans
Void Spirit
300 picks · 367 bans
Mars
255 picks · 441 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
Rubick
210 picks · 108 bans
Nyx Assassin
203 picks · 620 bans
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:27
LGD Gaming 29%Invictus Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 53:38.
Game 2prediction correct14:24
LGD Gaming 29%Invictus Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 37:31.
Game 3prediction correct20:34
LGD Gaming 29%Invictus Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 71%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3