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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 25 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 22 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
415 picks · 953 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
384 picks · 543 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 712 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
327 picks · 558 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
316 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 219 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
279 picks · 285 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
277 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:1
LGD Gaming 43%Invictus Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 53:39.
Game 2prediction missed17:10
LGD Gaming 43%Invictus Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 57%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2