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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 22 games
59%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%

Keyd Stars

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 9 games
22%
Tusk
Tusk
Kingrd · 9 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Costabile · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Costabile · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 444 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
211 picks · 270 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
188 picks · 262 bans
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
176 picks · 106 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 372 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 323 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:10
LGD Gaming 78%Keyd Stars 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
50% · 48 games46% · 113 games
Templar AssassinCostabile
Templar Assassin
Doom
Doomniu
49% · 245 games53% · 82 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNothingToSay
52% · 84 games46% · 26 games
BristlebackFCR
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertapLAnet
57% · 33 games53% · 151 game
Nature's ProphetKJ
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
45% · 160 games52% · 198 games
TuskKingrd
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct32:15
LGD Gaming 77%Keyd Stars 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
60% · 19 games52% · 37 games
SvenCostabile
Sven
Weaver
Weavershiro
40% · 12 games55% · 146 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNothingToSay
51% · 125 games78% · 5 games
NecrophosFCR
Necrophos
Oracle
Oracley`
45% · 48 games46% · 34 games
Earth SpiritKingrd
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
42% · 110 games53% · 92 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 92%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2