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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 16 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 9 games
89%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 8 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 5 games
20%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
CatYou · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 266 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 545 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
326 picks · 408 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 571 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 328 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
294 picks · 460 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
271 picks · 377 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
267 picks · 494 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 36%
Hero pool strength66% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:9
LGD Gaming 84%LBZS 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAme
53% · 190 games49% · 271 game
Wraith KingFonte
Wraith King
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
46% · 124 games47% · 256 games
Dragon KnightMolasses
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
54% · 269 games50% · 229 games
Storm SpiritShanks
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixXinQ
52% · 144 games45% · 226 games
HoodwinkCatYou
Hoodwink
Bane
Baney`
57% · 255 games
Game 2prediction correct31:15
LGD Gaming 82%LBZS 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAme
48% · 22 games48% · 86 games
KunkkaShanks
Kunkka
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
51% · 43 games38% · 30 games
Chaos KnightFonte
Chaos Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
59% · 24 games57% · 27 games
NecrophosMolasses
Necrophos
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
50% · 37 games44% · 66 games
Earth SpiritCatYou
Earth Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddony`
59% · 83 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 95%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2