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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
y` · 13 games
85%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
XinQ · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
88%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 20 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silencer
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 9 games
78%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 7 games
29%
Lich
Lichsignature
Victoria · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
823 picks · 577 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
598 picks · 409 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 546 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 418 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 786 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
436 picks · 896 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
429 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:2
LGD Gaming 80%Limit 20%
The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 15:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
49% · 213 games45% · 149 games
MorphlingMercury
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
50% · 227 games49% · 71 game
LycanChosenone
Lycan
Axe
Axezeal
51% · 19 games54% · 231 game
Ember SpiritKry
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranapLAnet
56% · 397 games53% · 162 games
Enchantress出省
Enchantress
Dazzle
Dazzley`
46% · 84 games45% · 327 games
Rubickcxk
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct44:12
LGD Gaming 81%Limit 19%
The model gave 81% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pugna
PugnaNothingToSay
50% · 63 games54% · 88 games
JuggernautMercury
Juggernaut
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightzeal
46% · 105 games54% · 64 games
Queen of PainKry
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey Kingshiro
52% · 128 games51% · 54 games
Centaur WarrunnerChosenone
Centaur Warrunner
Abaddon
Abaddony`
45% · 48 games50% · 194 games
Rubickcxk
Rubick
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritpLAnet
46% · 63 games47% · 7 games
Ancient Apparition出省
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 93%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2