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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 16 games
69%
Largo
Largooften banned
Wisper · 11 games
45%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 11 games
73%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Yuma · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
TaiLung · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Wisper · 9 games
56%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 28 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
37%
Batrider
Batridersignature
BOOM · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 17 games
35%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
492 picks · 355 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 640 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 340 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 228 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
306 picks · 296 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 394 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
290 picks · 323 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 28%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
LGD Gaming 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
55% · 60 games48% · 55 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Lina
LinaYuma
49% · 26 games47% · 136 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Pangolier
PangolierTaiLung
48% · 163 games45% · 40 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
44% · 113 games63% · 101 game
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Keeper of the Light
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKJ
48% · 51 game51% · 81 game
UndyingTobi
Undying
Game 2prediction correct46:34
LGD Gaming 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 51:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYuma
59% · 32 games56% · 192 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomWisper
51% · 96 games49% · 60 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiLung
52% · 172 games38% · 66 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Undying
UndyingKJ
49% · 85 games53% · 39 games
MagnusOneJey
Magnus
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeThiolicor
51% · 42 games45% · 70 games
Winter WyvernTobi
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 74%
Accuracy by game1 of 2