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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 30 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Baneoften banned
KJ · 19 games
58%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 24 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yamich · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
aik · 14 games
29%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 292 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
368 picks · 160 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
359 picks · 158 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 481 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 302 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 471 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
290 picks · 270 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
269 picks · 369 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
LGD Gaming 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWits
54% · 78 games48% · 91 game
Ursa423
Ursa
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSumaiL
49% · 120 games50% · 163 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Axe
AxeDavai
49% · 245 games50% · 213 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingSneyking
54% · 146 games48% · 235 games
Windrangermrls
Windranger
Techies
TechiesThiolicor
49% · 178 games50% · 65 games
Witch DoctorMoOz
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct42:7
LGD Gaming 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosDavai
42% · 134 games56% · 109 games
Clinkz423
Clinkz
Windranger
WindrangerWits
46% · 350 games48% · 412 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
45% · 215 games60% · 183 games
UndyingBOOM
Undying
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
46% · 254 games50% · 220 games
Keeper of the Lightmrls
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneSneyking
54% · 275 games53% · 304 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2