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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 21 game
33%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 15 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Pyw · 11 games
45%

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Yuragi · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
36%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 418 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 301 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 897 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 805 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
346 picks · 697 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
343 picks · 478 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 382 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
LGD Gaming 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothershiro
52% · 49 games49% · 69 games
Shadow FiendSancity
Shadow Fiend
Doom
Doomniu
52% · 179 games42% · 112 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Rubick
RubickEcho
49% · 285 games47% · 305 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Chen
Cheny`
60% · 114 games50% · 39 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPyw
53% · 96 games47% · 198 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed15:32
LGD Gaming 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightshiro
47% · 373 games47% · 136 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Mars
Marsniu
53% · 277 games53% · 176 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
54% · 69 games54% · 342 games
TinySancity
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
48% · 360 games49% · 301 game
RubickZayac
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctory`
54% · 44 games44% · 168 games
WeaverMalady
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2