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The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 25 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 19 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 17 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 15 games
60%

nouns

Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
690 picks · 473 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
615 picks · 646 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1113 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 494 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1240 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
485 picks · 1053 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 686 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 923 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:15
LGD Gaming 52%nouns 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
48% · 69 games47% · 243 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 326 games56% · 139 games
LycanMoo
Lycan
Doom
Doomniu
44% · 274 games51% · 244 games
Storm SpiritGunnar
Storm Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
44% · 149 games59% · 169 games
PugnaLelis
Pugna
Undying
Undyingy`
44% · 329 games59% · 352 games
DisruptorHusky
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed16:23
LGD Gaming 52%nouns 48%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by nouns in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
52% · 111 games47% · 241 game
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
50% · 297 games50% · 155 games
BroodmotherMoo
Broodmother
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNothingToSay
49% · 169 games52% · 195 games
BloodseekerYamSun
Bloodseeker
Snapfire
Snapfirey`
45% · 247 games62% · 116 games
ChenHusky
Chen
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
44% · 172 games49% · 289 games
TechiesLelis
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2