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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 10 games
90%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 9 games
56%

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 17 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
574 picks · 441 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
414 picks · 891 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 574 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
351 picks · 178 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
349 picks · 463 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
316 picks · 197 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
313 picks · 368 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
290 picks · 563 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
LGD Gaming 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAme
52% · 47 games54% · 172 games
Templar AssassinYuragi
Templar Assassin
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
46% · 74 games55% · 192 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
47% · 329 games54% · 30 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
48% · 149 games54% · 89 games
ViperTaiga
Viper
Dazzle
Dazzley`
49% · 36 games44% · 152 games
DawnbreakerMisha
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed31:41
LGD Gaming 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreAme
55% · 37 games53% · 78 games
Faceless VoidYuragi
Faceless Void
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
43% · 127 games29% · 3 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
52% · 75 games52% · 247 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
44% · 130 games59% · 39 games
WindrangerTaiga
Windranger
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
38% · 49 games57% · 51 game
WarlockMisha
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct24:10
LGD Gaming 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
53% · 295 games43% · 155 games
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
60% · 237 games44% · 120 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
54% · 248 games44% · 242 games
Dragon KnightATF
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyXinQ
47% · 319 games52% · 150 games
PhoenixTaiga
Phoenix
Warlock
Warlocky`
48% · 31 game50% · 463 games
BaneMisha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 63%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3