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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
91%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 20 games
65%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
81%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
79%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
697 picks · 507 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
499 picks · 981 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
408 picks · 521 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 200 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
378 picks · 687 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
329 picks · 308 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
303 picks · 509 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
296 picks · 630 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:17
LGD Gaming 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 21:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
49% · 256 games46% · 56 games
Troll WarlordYuragi
Troll Warlord
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
50% · 67 games51% · 198 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
54% · 38 games53% · 165 games
BloodseekerATF
Bloodseeker
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
45% · 253 games55% · 53 games
ChenTaiga
Chen
Alchemist
Alchemisty`
40% · 30 games57% · 172 games
IoCeb
Io
Game 2prediction correct38:12
LGD Gaming 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreAme
57% · 49 games52% · 89 games
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
46% · 165 games53% · 179 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Pudge
PudgeNothingToSay
48% · 56 games52% · 27 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Viper
Vipery`
49% · 138 games49% · 25 games
Elder TitanCeb
Elder Titan
Marci
MarciXinQ
49% · 177 games46% · 265 games
TinyTaiga
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct35:31
LGD Gaming 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 50:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
38% · 33 games52% · 195 games
Keeper of the Lightbzm
Keeper of the Light
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
48% · 176 games54% · 132 games
MorphlingYuragi
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
50% · 169 games52% · 144 games
ViperATF
Viper
Dazzle
Dazzley`
48% · 64 games50% · 59 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
Tiny
TinyXinQ
49% · 319 games52% · 231 game
MarciTaiga
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 72%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3